RESEARCH PROGRAM three
This Research Program developed techniques, algorithms and databases to predict and avoid potential collisions between space objects. This will provide a transparent and rational means to make decisions about asset management and how best to optimise assets and preserve the space environment.
A major focus was the development of systems that allow multi-national contributions to space object catalogues and a global distribution of asset management.
Project lead: SERC
Researchers: James Bennett, Daniel Kucharski, Michael Lachut, Marek Möckel, Sven Flegel, Alex Pollard, David Kooymans, James Allworth
Participants: SERC, Optus Satellite Systems, EOS Space Systems
Non Participants: Graz Observatory, Zimmerwald Observatory
The core function of this RP was to develop a SOC database containing space objects of interest.
Optus space object ephemeris data, range data and manoeuvre data is automatically retrieved and stored in the SOC. The ephemeris data is used in the conjunction assessment process allowing SERC to provide conjunction assessments which include Optus’ satellite manoeuvre plans. Currently Optus use data provided by CSpOC, however, testing of the SERC system is underway.
EOSSS tracking data is automatically stored in the SOC. When sufficient data has been stored, automatic ephemeris generation is triggered which performs an orbit determination using numerical integration of a complete force model. A complete force model provides the best accuracy. This produces a state and covariance for use in scheduling, conjunction assessments (or refinements) and conjunction probability estimation. The states and covariances are also used to estimate the time when the orbital state error becomes non-Gaussian (ie: not a normal distribution). The connection between the database and the CATW system has been made so the state and covariance can be sent automatically for conjunction assessment.
The conjunction information is then returned to the database for storage and viewing. The conjunction information is autonomously provided to Optus by automatic email transfer.
The catalogue pushes the object states and covariances to the conjunction assessment system for automated conjunction analysis. The resulting conjunction data message is returned to the database and an interface has been set up to monitor the conjunctions.
Innovative research and technologies have resulted from the object characterisation work that demonstrate the application of complex methods of science, hardware and software:
The following techniques using machine learning have been developed to improve the correlation of tracked objects, designed for reliable object identification or use in the laser manoeuvre campaign:
The pipeline has been tested and refined by:
Project lead: SERC
Researchers: James Bennett, Marek Möckel, Sven Flegel, Daniel Kucharski, Michael Lachut, Jeffrey Wardman, Andrew Edwards
Participants: SERC, Optus Satellite Systems, EOS Space Systems
SERC has developed a conjunction analysis system for all objects (all-on-all conjunction analysis) in the SOC which can provide actionable conjunction alerts to subscribers. The SERC conjunction system also distributes priority tasking to sensors in the SOC network to provide increased tracking and updating for potential collisions which are considered serious.
An Information-Gain based scheduler, which distributes the tasking of sensors by maximising the information gain, has been developed and optimised in C++ to allow for a larger network of sensors. The software has been tested and the scheduler used in the lead up to the on-sky experiments.
The conjunction assessment system has been validated in test scenarios running on SERC’s own catalogued objects as well as on special perturbations, and ephemeris data provided by Optus. Results have been validated and are in agreement with CSpOC conjunction threat warnings.
Currently the conjunction system allows for:
The CATW system can fuse data from the EOSSS sensor network to improve collision predictions. State error information is generated during the SERC ephemeris generation allowing the probability of conjunction, and the time until the error becomes non-Gaussian, to be calculated. This information is unique to SERC and not provided by CSpOC for the TLEs or Special Perturbations (SP).
The CATW system has been set up as a server so multiple conjunction assessments tasks can be queued for execution. A client front-end interface has also been developed to allow the user to run and view the conjunction assessments.
Several historical close approach scenarios have been used to validate the results of the SERC CATW system. One example of this is the close approach between Optus 10 and a Block DM-SL rocket body on 26th November 2018.
This is a particularly interesting case due to the highly eccentric orbit of the piece of space debris.
The SERC CATW collision prediction and the JSpOC (JSpOC has been renamed CSpOC) predictions were in agreement.
The SERC SP vs Optus ephemeris results compare well with the JSpOC results in this historical close approach and is part of the validation process of the SERC SP vs Optus ephemeris generation and conjunction assessment method.
CATW trials undertaken at Optus demonstrated the SERC CATW System produces actionable results to satellite operators.
We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of the ACT, the Ngunnawal people. We acknowledge and respect their continuing culture and the contribution they make to the life of this city and this region.